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Peter Hall: Workforce Planning and Australian Science |
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In wartime, strategic workforce planning
is a priority. In the wars of the past, certain occupations were classified
as "reserved," and young men (and to a lesser extent, women) were retained at home rather than
sent abroad. Only as the supply of fighting men dwindled were those in
reserved occupations specifically called upon for military service.
The nature of a reserved occupation depended on the technological sophistication of society, as well as on the severity of the conflict. Thus, engineering was a not a reserved occupation in the Great War, in the UK. However, by the Second World War the technology of warfare had become so complex, and so critical to victory, that engineering was reserved.
Current manpower projections have turned workforce planning on its head. Demographers forecast such small numbers of young men and women in the Australia of the future, that some military planners are rattled. Their predictions of the need to secure Australia against threat suggest that, within a depressingly short span of years, almost every male over the age of 17 will have to serve in our armed forces for a period.
No matter how you look at it, Australia is running out of skilled men and women. Later this year, Australian business and industry will start to experience an acute shortage of IT experts. We are already chronically short of mathematical modellers, statisticians and other science professionals.
Given the length of time it takes to train staff with these skills, can we rely on market forces -- that is, on the attractions of high salaries -- to encourage appropriately many people into strategically important careers? The Sydney Morning Herald of 28th February argues that the need to recover HECS-style loans is driving increasingly many students into courses which lead to quick salary returns. Business and law lead in this respect, reports the Herald. Fields such as education lag far behind.
Perhaps the demand for scientists will force up their salaries. However, it's unlikely. Increasingly Australia is seeking ways to do without science, and learning to engage our economy at a lower level than a drive for innovation would demand. For example, foreign companies are sending their investment dollars to other nations, which can supply the scientists that cannot be found in Australia. The fact that these companies see Australia as unable to meet their requirements means that they don't create a demand which would raise the salaries of scientists in this country.
Market forces are simply too blunt a tool to adequately manage the long-term workforce needs of Australia, especially in science.
Professor Peter Hall, Mathematical Sciences Institute, The Australian National University, Canberra