News & Views item - July 2011

 

Australia If or When a 4oC Increase in Average Global Temperature Occurs? (July 14, 2011)

Dr Penny Whetton, a CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship climate researcher, described the likely effect on Australia of a 4oC increase in global temperature above the annual average temperatures recorded in 1850 if greenhouse gas emissions continue apace, to the Four Degrees climate change conference in Melbourne:

 

Rapid global warming of 4ºC would be unlike anything experienced before by modern human societies – presenting us with huge challenges in terms of our ability to adapt. It is important to note that although some climate change is inevitable, changes of the magnitude described here are still avoidable as long as we are able to significantly reduce global greenhouse emissions.

 

In three years, Australians will have the latest climate projections for the 21st Century for a range of factors including; sea levels, seasonal-average temperatures, rainfall, as well as extreme weather events such as heatwaves, fires, droughts, floods, and cyclones. Our research will only be of value if it is clearly communicated and then rigorously applied in formulating adaptation strategies.

 

The results presented by Dr Whetton come from a joint paper written by researchers from CSIRO and The University of Melbourne which look at results from up to 23 global climate models.

 

Some of the climate changes expected: