Chief Scientist Gives Keynote Address on Climate Change to Australian Davos Connection in Melbourne. (December 3, 2009)

The ADC (Australian Davos Connection Limited) describes itself as "a wholly Australian, non-political, not-for-profit leadership organisation which brings together leaders from business, government, the public sector, academia and the broader community to improve their understanding of key issues affecting Australia".

Australia's Chief Scientist, Professor Penny Sackett, today delivered the keynote address on climate change, Changing the World, at an event hosted by Australian Davos Connection in Melbourne.

The full address is available online at http://www.chiefscientist.gov.au/wp-content/uploads/Moving-the-World.pdf

Some excerpts:

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I imagine that regardless of the outcome of the Copenhagen meetings, there will be those who hail it as a success and those who describe it as a failure.

Either way, two things are certain.

First, the scientific truths that set us on this common journey are tolling more loudly and more clearly than ever the need to take immediate action.

Second, an incredible amount of work will still remain to be done, most of it outside the realm of politics. Of course having a supportive policy framework would help, but forward-looking sectors cannot afford to wait for this to be in place before they act.

Due to the quantity in which it is emitted by humans, its longevity in the atmosphere, and its effectiveness in trapping heat, carbon dioxide, CO₂,
is the most important of the greenhouse gases currently causing changes in the Earth’s climate.

Oceans soak up 85% of the heat trapped by increased greenhouse gases. Their average temperatures have been steadily rising since at least 1959.

Only a small fraction of the additional heat is taken up by the atmosphere. As a consequence, air temperatures are quite susceptible to the state of the ocean and land beneath them.

Sea level is rising, partly because warm water expands and partly because glaciers and land ice are melting and calving off in large pieces into the sea.

At the moment, average sea level rise is about 3 mm per year, and projections for the end of the century range from 75 to 190 cm (nearly 2 meters) depending on the movement of the great ice sheets.

Even if everyone on the face of the Earth stops emitting greenhouse gases tomorrow, we have already committed ourselves to a future in which the global average temperature will be 1.3^o higher than the periods in which modern civilization has flourished. Given current emissions trajectories, it is almost certain that we are locked into a climate that will be 2^o higher.

By acting now to ensure that annual global emissions peak by 2015 and then fall steadily every year thereafter, we can transition into the new carbon economy in a planned and measured way, and be rewarded by leading, rather than trailing the pack.

We need to massively increase our investment in the research and innovation required to continue the transition to a low-carbon environment, including investing in smart, power grids suitable for the distribution of renewable as well as other forms of energy.

Over the past thirty years, Denmark has gone from being fully dependent on external energy to becoming a net energy exporter. Its GDP has grown by 70% over this period with almost no increase in its total energy use. The same time, its CO₂ emissions have dropped by 18%.

What about costs? Studies presented by the Director of the Global Energy Assessment indicate that the cost to maintain the global temperature rise to 2^oC is nearly the same as that to maintain the rise to 4^oC. Why? Because much of the reduction in greenhouse gases can be achieved through energy efficiency, which saves energy and thus money.

Due to our large individual carbon footprints, some of the largest in the world, we, as individual Australians, are probably more able on a person-to-person basis to effect change than any other individuals in the world. Australians matter and can make an enormous contribution. Why would we not rise to this challenge and this opportunity to move the world with Australian science and Australian individual and collective leadership?

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Asked by the Herald Sun's Olga Galacho to explain data that showed the earth had been cooling in recent years, the trained astrophysicist acknowledged air temperatures had levelled during the La Nina weather pattern, now nearing an end.

"But next time someone talks about cooler weather, ask them if they are talking about the temperature in the small amount of atmosphere above the surface of the earth or the great mass of heat retained in the world's oceans," she said and added. "When scientists talk about global warming, they are referring to the temperature of the whole earth and most of the heat is stored in the oceans, which have not cooled in 10 years."