The NYT Headline Reads "U.S. Slips in Attracting the World's Best Students".  Is Australia Gaining from the US Loss? (December 22, 2004)

    The 1,700 word feature article by Sam Dillon in the December 21^st New York Times is just the latest critique of the falling applications for graduate and postgraduate places at US universities following the terrorist demolition of the World Trade Center's two main towers on September 11, 2001. But as David G. Payne, an executive director of the Educational Testing Service told Dillon, "What we're starting to see in terms of international students now having options outside the U.S. for high-quality education is just the tip of the iceberg. Other countries are just starting to expand their capacity for offering graduate education. In the future, foreign students will have far greater opportunities."

US graduate schools received 28% fewer applications this year compared to the previous year while foreign graduate student enrollments declined by 6%, so along with the decline in applications US universities haven't been able to be as choosy with regard to admissions as previously.

Tim O'Brien, international development director at Nottingham Trent University in England points out, "International education is big business for all of the Anglophone countries, and the U.S. traditionally has dominated the market without having to try very hard, [but] now Australia, the U.K., Ireland, New Zealand and Canada are competing for that dollar, and our lives have been made easier because of the difficulties that students are having getting into the U.S. International students say it's not worth queuing up for two days outside the U.S. consulate in whatever country they are in to get a visa when they can go to the U.K. so much more easily."

Dillon reports, "During 2002, the most recent year for which comparable figures are available, some 586,000 foreign students were enrolled in United States universities, compared with about 270,000 in Britain, the world's second-largest higher education destination, and 227,000 in Germany, the third-largest. Foreign enrollments increased by 15 percent that year in Britain, and in Germany by 10 percent."

Analysing what's happening to graduate student "migration" the OECD's Dr. Vincent-Lancrin calculates that three ...strategies emerged in the 1990s. Countries with aging populations like Canada and Germany, pursuing a "skilled migration" approach, have sought to recruit talented students in strategic disciplines and to encourage them to settle after graduation. Germany subsidizes foreign students so generously that their education is free [while] Australia and New Zealand, pursuing a "revenue generating" approach, treat higher education as an industry, charging foreign students full tuition. They compete effectively in the world market because they offer quality education and the costs of attaining some degrees in those countries are lower than in the United States. [Thirdly] emerging countries like India, China and Singapore, pursuing a "capacity building" approach, view study abroad by thousands of their nation's students as a way of training future professors and researchers for their own university systems, which are expanding rapidly.

Taking the US' problems on board you might think that foreign university student intake by Australia's higher education system would be accelerating. And this carefully crafted piece in AME Info: The ultimate Middle East business resource might engender reassurance until you realize it contrives to say nothing:

United Arab Emirates: Wednesday, December 01 - 2004 at 14:26
 

Australia emerges as top destination for post-graduate studies in the UAE

Statistics released today revealed that there has been a significant increase over last year in the number of Arab nationals and expatriates from UAE, Oman, Kuwait, Bahrain, Iran, Iraq and Jordan looking at Australia as a chosen destination for higher education.

It analysed the response generated by the road shows that were organised in early October by IDP in the region in which more than 25 Australian colleges and universities participated. According to the numbers, Kuwait saw an increase of 80 per cent, which was the highest followed by Oman showing 63 per cent increase, UAE at 40 per cent increase and Bahrain up by 35 per cent.

 But over recent weeks Australia's broadsheets tell a tale that's giving university administrators more than a few disquieting moments.

On December 9^th Dorothy Illing reported in The Australian

Slump in overseas students hits recruiter

FOREIGN demand for places at Australian universities has slowed so much that the body recruiting students to study here has began shutting overseas offices and slashing staff.
    At a special board meeting last night, IDP Education Australia's South African office, which employs eight people, was told it would close before Christmas. A number of European offices, including London and Stockholm are also likely to go as the group tries to cut costs.

    It is understood the board decided the not-for-profit company should focus on its core business -- student recruitment in Asia -- as it faces a drop in demand from overseas students wanting to study in Australia.

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It is likely to announce later this week that it will also shed staff in Australia. Other offices understood to be vulnerable include Mexico and Brazil.

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A high Australian dollar, a rise in living costs and an increase in university course fees are contributing to the difficult climate.

And many countries that have been traditional recruiting markets for Australia are building up their own education systems, making it more attractive for students to study at home.

And on the same day the Penn State University Digital Collegian while extolling the qualities of its students spending some time at Australian universities warned "Education Abroad Director Joan Keller said that although Australia is a prime location for studying abroad, prices are increasing. 'One thing that is happening is Australia is becoming increasingly expensive, so it is making U.S. universities re-think partnerships,' Keller said."

Mark Coultan in the December 20^th Age wrote:

According to IDP Education Australia, the Australian universities' recruitment agency, the number of students beginning courses has dropped by 3 per cent on last year, reversing a decade-long trend of increasing numbers.

    The fall in enrolments is also being blamed on Australia over-cooking a golden goose. The rise of the Australian dollar, increased tuition fees, the high cost of visas and improving education standards in Asia are all being blamed for the tide turning on what has become a $5 billion export earner for Australia and a source of funds for universities.

    The tougher requirements for permanent residency for overseas students - to come into effect from April - risks accelerating the drop in enrolments. The prospect of permanent migration is one of the most attractive features for Asian students to study in Australia.

While Dorothy Illing chipped in (The Australian, December 20^th) "About 22 Australian staff were given redundancy notices last week and more are expected to follow. Several resignations have also taken place in the past week.
    "IDP confirmed it will close seven overseas offices but local labour laws are expected to complicate redundancies in some of those countries.
    "In a statement last week IDP described the cuts as a "shift to market consolidation" and an attempt to 'reinvigorate its global network' to focus on student recruitment in Asia."

Now Illing tells her readers in today's Australian, " The company's [IDP Education Australia's] future is on the agenda for the first plenary meeting of all vice-chancellors next year, when different business models for the company will be considered.

    "But many people close to IDP believe a rescue bid must be mounted before that meeting if the company is to survive."

So while the US' loss appears to be Britain's, Germany's and Canada's gain the same seems not to be the case for Australia's universities.

But make no mistake, the loss will be the nation's and not merely the immediate revenue decline generated by overseas student fees but through the loss of future scientists, engineers, and academics who are needeed to invigorate the nation's "knowledge economy."

And all the while the Treasurer, Peter Costello, crows over his budget surplus as the university sector subsides on palliative care.

Really smart move, Pete, John, Brendan.